Post by admin on Jan 14, 2009 16:43:03 GMT
As you get older you notice that the years seem to fly by with ever increasing speed and sure enough we're into a new year and that brings a new Grand Prix series. We know the permanent fifteen riders, but how do we see them performing over eleven rounds? Well, here are my thoughts:
1..Nicki Pedersen..(DEN): Will 31-year-old world champion Nicki Pedersen be in a class all of his own in 2009?
Sadly, it looks like it. The ease with which he won the world championship in 2008 was embarrassing. He hardly needed to extend himself at all, as the other fancied riders imploded and fell by the wayside, while Nicki P just glided along. He only won a single GP, but by consistently reaching the finals he comfortably retained the crown.
I expect 2009 to be much the same.
Record: GPs = 77; Finals = 35; Wins = 9.
2..Jason Crump..(AUS): A major disappointment in last year's GPs, even though he managed to finish second for the upteenth time. The 33-year-old was never seriously in contention for the title, in spite of winning a couple of GPs, and it's a wonder it took Nicki P until the final GP to claim gold.
This season Crump has decided to sit out the Elite League campaign in Britain as he attempts to regain the world title.
But he won his two world titles while riding in Britain. It just smacks of an easy excuse to blame the busy Elite League programme. To me Crump has greater underlying problems. He hasn't been the same rider in the GPs since he claimed his second title. As soon as that happened, the foot came off the gas and complacency set in. Now he's expecting dumping Britain to solve his problems? I don't think it'll work. Crump hasn't seemed to be organised as well as Nicki P, his machinery doesn't seem to be up to the standard of Nicki P and he doesn't seem to be as driven as Nicki P.
He talks of wanting to win another world title, but the global superstar talks about knowing he can win a GP. I fear that Crump needs to learn that actions speak louder than words. He'll be there or thereabouts, no doubt, but I can't see him lifting the crown. And if he does, dumping Britain will have played no role in it.
Record: GPs = 100; Finals = 57; Wins = 18.
3..Tomasz Gollob..(POL): It was something of a surprise to see the great man on the world championship podium again. To be sure, he had a little bit of luck along the way, with the rains falling to his advantage in Krsko and his spiritual home of Bydgoszcz hosting two rounds (where he scored an impressive 41 points out of a possible 48). He finished third and if he could've wished Cardiff away, he'd have been second. But you can't just wish Cardiff away and it'll probably be his downfall again in 2009. But why? Gollob has done reasonably well at Cardiff in the past; he's made semi-finals among the ruts in the Millennium Stadium shale in 2003 and 2004. However, since then, it's been a sorry tale of woe in Wales for the ultra-gifted Pole.
But he was the renaissance man of 2008, with three wins and, leaving Cardiff aside, consistently good showings. And he always looked fast. In previous seasons I often felt that Gollob wasn't in the top bracket when it came to mechanical set-ups, but that wasn't the case in 2008.
And Gollob himself seems to have changed. Gone is the semi-permanent scowl that characterised the younger Gollob, to be replaced by a more relaxed attitude that appears to be giving him a new lease of life. I've a feeling that this coming season will see Gollob once again challenging for a podium place.
Record: GPs = 107; Finals = 39; Wins = 14.
4..Greg Hancock..(USA): The 38-year-old ex-world champion just defies me year after year, so I'm not about to write him off. After all, no one - and I mean no one - has as much GP experience as Hancock. There've been 111 GPs and Hancock has been in each and every single one of them.
Hancock has good seasons and relatively bad seasons in the GPs; they seem to be alternate years. Not so good in 2007, when he had an appalling run of form mid-season, but good in 2008, with many believing that the second Bydgoszcz GP robbed him of a justified podium place.
Like most of the top guys who've been around for years, Hancock has the required infrastructure in place and the experience, both personally and within his team, to at least maintain his position in the GPs. He might slip down a few places, or he might move up a couple of places.
Record: GPs = 111; Finals = 45; Wins = 9.
5..Hans Andersen..(DEN): I hear that quite a few people think that this coming season will be a straight fight between Nicki P and 28-year-old Andersen for the title. I'm not convinced; not convinced at all. Andersen's a good rider, but world champion material? I think not.
He's too limited and his traditional "get out of the way, I'm coming through" style doesn't work quite so well at the highest level. Witness the way that Tomasz Gollob took him for a mug in the 2007 SWC final at Leszno - he charged after Gollob, Gollob drifted wide and lured Andersen into "no man's land", allowing the global superstar to nip through into second spot.
That's not to say he won't be comfortably in the top eight. I expect he will be, but I just don't see him as a challenger for the title.
Record: GPs = 53; Finals = 16; Wins = 4.
6..Leigh Adams..(AUS): Will this be the 37-year-old Mildura (I know he's from Mildura because Tony Millard has drilled it into me during Sky's coverage of speedway) man's last year in the circus? It seems to be the annual question. It's been asked ahead of the 2006 season, the 2007 season, the 2008 season and each time Adams has reappeared. But I think this could be his last season in the GPs.
He didn't have a tremendously good GP season in 2008, in spite of winning a couple, as he slipped from second to sixth. In fact, aside from the largely discredited Elite League, he didn't have that good a season full stop. He wasn't even top of the Leszno average in Poland, ceding that spot to Jaroslaw Hampel, who was so shamefully over-looked for the GPs due to Poland's perceived over-representation.
And now the Australians have a ready-made replacement called Chris Holder waiting in the wings, so I expect Adams to bow gracefully out after 2009. He won't go out a world champion, but nor will he slip out of top eight contention. He leave on his own terms.
I expect the usual from Adams this season; solid scoring, the occasional final and maybe a win or two along the way. He'll start the season wearing six and I think he'll end up around about sixth.
Record: GPs = 104; Finals = 26; Wins = 8.
7..Andreas Jonsson..(SWE): Probably the biggest disappointment of 2008 was the 28-year-old Jonsson. After winning a couple of GPs in 2007, I don't believe it was unreasonable to expect a tilt at the medal positions from the hugely gifted Swede, but it never happened. He only made one final during the whole season and that was in the first GP of the year in Solvenia.
I wrote on the BSF ahead of the 2005 season (I think) that we've all been waiting just a little bit too long for Jonsson to make that "breakthrough" season. I guess we could suggest that his first win in 2006 was the "breakthrough", or his two wins in 2007 (a season in which he suffered in the GPs through injury much of the time), but then in 2008 he was once again on the periphery; stuck in no man's land.
He'll be top eight in 2009 (so long as he steers clear of injury), of that I have no doubt and he could be a serious contender, or he could be "king of the also-rans".
Record: GPs = 68; Finals = 12; Wins = 3.
8..Rune Holta..(POL): You have to admire the 35-year-old non-blood Pole. It's doubtful that too many people in the sport's corridors of power want him in the GP series and if there was one rider in 2007 who HAD to finish in the top eight to guarantee his spot for 2009 it was Holta. And he did, holding his nerve in the final GP while the global superstar imploded.
I can see 2009 being much the same as 2008, although I can't see Holta winning a round. He'll be in there fighting tooth and nail for his place in 2009.
Record: GPs = 58; Finals = 6; Wins = 1.
9..Scott Nicholls..(GBR): I guess the 30-year-old global superstar will shortly be telling everyone that this is a "make or break year" for him. Just like 2008 and 2007 were also "make or break years". But nothing ever seems to change. Just the same old guff about "knowing he can win one" and all the bad luck he's had.
Always casting around for scapegoats, the global superstar fired his long-time mechanic mid-season last year, in spite of continually telling the world that his bikes were fast enough. And now he's decided dumping the Elite League is the way forward. But I don't buy that anymore than I bought that you had to ride in Britain to stand a chance of world championship glory. Just another excuse from someone who is never short of excuses.
So, I reckon we'll have another "same old, same old" season from the global superstar. A slow start, the occasional decent display to give the terminally deluded something to cling on to and a tsunami of excuses when once again he's down among the also rans.
Record: GPs = 68; Finals = 9; Wins = 0.
10..Fredrik Lindgren..(SWE): I'm just not convinced about the merits of the 23-year-old. I was hugely disappointed with his showings in 2008 and the second season in the GPs for a rider is notoriously difficult, witness the abject showings of Messrs Harris and Zagar in their second seasons. Zagar paid the price, Harris - being British - didn't. And Lindgren does have nationality going for him, as the Swedes decline.
Lindgren was mostly awful in the 2008 GPs and if he's sticking with Jawa and the Czech manufacturer hasn't got itself into gear, I can see him struggling badly.
Record: GPs = 15; Finals = 2; Wins = 0.
11..Chris Harris..(GBR): Do you find yourself wondering if you just imagined 26-year-old Harris' 2007 triumph in Cardiff?
So, was the 2008 season just a case of "second season blues", or was that 2007 win at Cardiff just pure luck?
In my opinion Harris needs a good start, like he got in 2007, when he just missed out on the semis in his first GP and then made the final in his second. If he doesn't get that good start, I can see a long season of struggle for the Cornishman.
Record: GPs = 22; Finals = 2; Wins = 1.
12..Kenneth Bjerre..(DEN): Bjerre can gate, usually has good machinery and has the knack of being able to focus and concentrate his not inconsiderable abilities on a single goal. And that goal is individual and international glory, so you can ignore his domestic performances; they have little or no bearing on his potential in the GPs.
And you also have to consider that few riders are quite so adept as Bjerre on Ole Olsen-prepared surfaces.
The 24-year-old can gate, is well-suited to slick tracks and could be a surprise packet, but the top guys are so set that I can't see him troubling the upper reaches of the championship table. He's likely to have a decent season.
Record: GPs = 6; Finals = 0; Wins = 0.
13..Grzegorz Walasek..(POL): A welcome air of weirdness will descend on the GPs in 2009 as the 32-year-old, semi-weird Zielona Gora man takes his place.
But he shouldn't be dismissed out of hand the way he is by some narrow-minded, parochial numpties who only view speedway through the prism of British speedway. He's scored a maximum in a SWC race-off, he's top-scored for Poland in a SWC meeting at Vojens and he's regularly there or thereabouts in the averages in the Polish Ekstraliga. He can gate and his engines are being done by Jan Andersson.
He won't be world champion, obviously. He might be down at the bottom of the standings, but he could also be in there challenging for a place in the top eight. He will no doubt have poor GPs, but, semi-weird as he is, he'll have GPs where he looks the business. He might even win one, with a fair wind.
He's just impossible to predict.
Record: GPs = 11; Finals = 0; Wins = 0.
14..Sebastian Ulamek..(POL): In 2006 the most consistent performer in the GPs was Piotr Protasiewicz. To be sure, he was consistently bad, but no one was - statistically - as consistent. And that's what I expect from 33-year-old Ulamek in 2009.
Record: GPs = 19; Finals = 0; Wins = 0.
15..Emil Sajfutdinov..(RUS): The preternaturally-gifted 19-year-old Russian will make his GP debut amid much hullabaloo and high expectations. Could Sajfutdinov be Russia's best hope of being in world championship contention since the late Igor Plechanov back in the 1960s?
He certainly has the ability and a certain six-times world champion in his corner.
I've a feeling his introduction to the circus will be along similar lines to that of the erratic princeling Antonio Lindback back in 2005, although one suspects without the "Olympic set" at Bydgoszcz, since it's his home track in Poland. Lindback had his moments and generally did well enough. I expect the same from Sajfutdinov.
Record: GPs = 0; Finals = 0; Wins = 0.
The Subedei prediction:
1..N Pedersen..(DEN)
2..T Gollob..(POL)
3..J Crump..(AUS)
4..A Jonsson..(SWE)
5..H Andersen..(DEN)
6..G Hancock..(USA)
7..L Adams..(AUS)
8..G Walasek..(POL)
9..R Holta..(POL)
10..E Sajfutdinov..(RUS)
11..S Nicholls..(GBR)
12..K Bjerre..(DEN)
13..F Lindgren..(SWE)
14..C Harris..(GBR)
15..S Ulamek..(POL)
Anyone else have any thoughts?
1..Nicki Pedersen..(DEN): Will 31-year-old world champion Nicki Pedersen be in a class all of his own in 2009?
Sadly, it looks like it. The ease with which he won the world championship in 2008 was embarrassing. He hardly needed to extend himself at all, as the other fancied riders imploded and fell by the wayside, while Nicki P just glided along. He only won a single GP, but by consistently reaching the finals he comfortably retained the crown.
I expect 2009 to be much the same.
Record: GPs = 77; Finals = 35; Wins = 9.
2..Jason Crump..(AUS): A major disappointment in last year's GPs, even though he managed to finish second for the upteenth time. The 33-year-old was never seriously in contention for the title, in spite of winning a couple of GPs, and it's a wonder it took Nicki P until the final GP to claim gold.
This season Crump has decided to sit out the Elite League campaign in Britain as he attempts to regain the world title.
But he won his two world titles while riding in Britain. It just smacks of an easy excuse to blame the busy Elite League programme. To me Crump has greater underlying problems. He hasn't been the same rider in the GPs since he claimed his second title. As soon as that happened, the foot came off the gas and complacency set in. Now he's expecting dumping Britain to solve his problems? I don't think it'll work. Crump hasn't seemed to be organised as well as Nicki P, his machinery doesn't seem to be up to the standard of Nicki P and he doesn't seem to be as driven as Nicki P.
He talks of wanting to win another world title, but the global superstar talks about knowing he can win a GP. I fear that Crump needs to learn that actions speak louder than words. He'll be there or thereabouts, no doubt, but I can't see him lifting the crown. And if he does, dumping Britain will have played no role in it.
Record: GPs = 100; Finals = 57; Wins = 18.
3..Tomasz Gollob..(POL): It was something of a surprise to see the great man on the world championship podium again. To be sure, he had a little bit of luck along the way, with the rains falling to his advantage in Krsko and his spiritual home of Bydgoszcz hosting two rounds (where he scored an impressive 41 points out of a possible 48). He finished third and if he could've wished Cardiff away, he'd have been second. But you can't just wish Cardiff away and it'll probably be his downfall again in 2009. But why? Gollob has done reasonably well at Cardiff in the past; he's made semi-finals among the ruts in the Millennium Stadium shale in 2003 and 2004. However, since then, it's been a sorry tale of woe in Wales for the ultra-gifted Pole.
But he was the renaissance man of 2008, with three wins and, leaving Cardiff aside, consistently good showings. And he always looked fast. In previous seasons I often felt that Gollob wasn't in the top bracket when it came to mechanical set-ups, but that wasn't the case in 2008.
And Gollob himself seems to have changed. Gone is the semi-permanent scowl that characterised the younger Gollob, to be replaced by a more relaxed attitude that appears to be giving him a new lease of life. I've a feeling that this coming season will see Gollob once again challenging for a podium place.
Record: GPs = 107; Finals = 39; Wins = 14.
4..Greg Hancock..(USA): The 38-year-old ex-world champion just defies me year after year, so I'm not about to write him off. After all, no one - and I mean no one - has as much GP experience as Hancock. There've been 111 GPs and Hancock has been in each and every single one of them.
Hancock has good seasons and relatively bad seasons in the GPs; they seem to be alternate years. Not so good in 2007, when he had an appalling run of form mid-season, but good in 2008, with many believing that the second Bydgoszcz GP robbed him of a justified podium place.
Like most of the top guys who've been around for years, Hancock has the required infrastructure in place and the experience, both personally and within his team, to at least maintain his position in the GPs. He might slip down a few places, or he might move up a couple of places.
Record: GPs = 111; Finals = 45; Wins = 9.
5..Hans Andersen..(DEN): I hear that quite a few people think that this coming season will be a straight fight between Nicki P and 28-year-old Andersen for the title. I'm not convinced; not convinced at all. Andersen's a good rider, but world champion material? I think not.
He's too limited and his traditional "get out of the way, I'm coming through" style doesn't work quite so well at the highest level. Witness the way that Tomasz Gollob took him for a mug in the 2007 SWC final at Leszno - he charged after Gollob, Gollob drifted wide and lured Andersen into "no man's land", allowing the global superstar to nip through into second spot.
That's not to say he won't be comfortably in the top eight. I expect he will be, but I just don't see him as a challenger for the title.
Record: GPs = 53; Finals = 16; Wins = 4.
6..Leigh Adams..(AUS): Will this be the 37-year-old Mildura (I know he's from Mildura because Tony Millard has drilled it into me during Sky's coverage of speedway) man's last year in the circus? It seems to be the annual question. It's been asked ahead of the 2006 season, the 2007 season, the 2008 season and each time Adams has reappeared. But I think this could be his last season in the GPs.
He didn't have a tremendously good GP season in 2008, in spite of winning a couple, as he slipped from second to sixth. In fact, aside from the largely discredited Elite League, he didn't have that good a season full stop. He wasn't even top of the Leszno average in Poland, ceding that spot to Jaroslaw Hampel, who was so shamefully over-looked for the GPs due to Poland's perceived over-representation.
And now the Australians have a ready-made replacement called Chris Holder waiting in the wings, so I expect Adams to bow gracefully out after 2009. He won't go out a world champion, but nor will he slip out of top eight contention. He leave on his own terms.
I expect the usual from Adams this season; solid scoring, the occasional final and maybe a win or two along the way. He'll start the season wearing six and I think he'll end up around about sixth.
Record: GPs = 104; Finals = 26; Wins = 8.
7..Andreas Jonsson..(SWE): Probably the biggest disappointment of 2008 was the 28-year-old Jonsson. After winning a couple of GPs in 2007, I don't believe it was unreasonable to expect a tilt at the medal positions from the hugely gifted Swede, but it never happened. He only made one final during the whole season and that was in the first GP of the year in Solvenia.
I wrote on the BSF ahead of the 2005 season (I think) that we've all been waiting just a little bit too long for Jonsson to make that "breakthrough" season. I guess we could suggest that his first win in 2006 was the "breakthrough", or his two wins in 2007 (a season in which he suffered in the GPs through injury much of the time), but then in 2008 he was once again on the periphery; stuck in no man's land.
He'll be top eight in 2009 (so long as he steers clear of injury), of that I have no doubt and he could be a serious contender, or he could be "king of the also-rans".
Record: GPs = 68; Finals = 12; Wins = 3.
8..Rune Holta..(POL): You have to admire the 35-year-old non-blood Pole. It's doubtful that too many people in the sport's corridors of power want him in the GP series and if there was one rider in 2007 who HAD to finish in the top eight to guarantee his spot for 2009 it was Holta. And he did, holding his nerve in the final GP while the global superstar imploded.
I can see 2009 being much the same as 2008, although I can't see Holta winning a round. He'll be in there fighting tooth and nail for his place in 2009.
Record: GPs = 58; Finals = 6; Wins = 1.
9..Scott Nicholls..(GBR): I guess the 30-year-old global superstar will shortly be telling everyone that this is a "make or break year" for him. Just like 2008 and 2007 were also "make or break years". But nothing ever seems to change. Just the same old guff about "knowing he can win one" and all the bad luck he's had.
Always casting around for scapegoats, the global superstar fired his long-time mechanic mid-season last year, in spite of continually telling the world that his bikes were fast enough. And now he's decided dumping the Elite League is the way forward. But I don't buy that anymore than I bought that you had to ride in Britain to stand a chance of world championship glory. Just another excuse from someone who is never short of excuses.
So, I reckon we'll have another "same old, same old" season from the global superstar. A slow start, the occasional decent display to give the terminally deluded something to cling on to and a tsunami of excuses when once again he's down among the also rans.
Record: GPs = 68; Finals = 9; Wins = 0.
10..Fredrik Lindgren..(SWE): I'm just not convinced about the merits of the 23-year-old. I was hugely disappointed with his showings in 2008 and the second season in the GPs for a rider is notoriously difficult, witness the abject showings of Messrs Harris and Zagar in their second seasons. Zagar paid the price, Harris - being British - didn't. And Lindgren does have nationality going for him, as the Swedes decline.
Lindgren was mostly awful in the 2008 GPs and if he's sticking with Jawa and the Czech manufacturer hasn't got itself into gear, I can see him struggling badly.
Record: GPs = 15; Finals = 2; Wins = 0.
11..Chris Harris..(GBR): Do you find yourself wondering if you just imagined 26-year-old Harris' 2007 triumph in Cardiff?
So, was the 2008 season just a case of "second season blues", or was that 2007 win at Cardiff just pure luck?
In my opinion Harris needs a good start, like he got in 2007, when he just missed out on the semis in his first GP and then made the final in his second. If he doesn't get that good start, I can see a long season of struggle for the Cornishman.
Record: GPs = 22; Finals = 2; Wins = 1.
12..Kenneth Bjerre..(DEN): Bjerre can gate, usually has good machinery and has the knack of being able to focus and concentrate his not inconsiderable abilities on a single goal. And that goal is individual and international glory, so you can ignore his domestic performances; they have little or no bearing on his potential in the GPs.
And you also have to consider that few riders are quite so adept as Bjerre on Ole Olsen-prepared surfaces.
The 24-year-old can gate, is well-suited to slick tracks and could be a surprise packet, but the top guys are so set that I can't see him troubling the upper reaches of the championship table. He's likely to have a decent season.
Record: GPs = 6; Finals = 0; Wins = 0.
13..Grzegorz Walasek..(POL): A welcome air of weirdness will descend on the GPs in 2009 as the 32-year-old, semi-weird Zielona Gora man takes his place.
But he shouldn't be dismissed out of hand the way he is by some narrow-minded, parochial numpties who only view speedway through the prism of British speedway. He's scored a maximum in a SWC race-off, he's top-scored for Poland in a SWC meeting at Vojens and he's regularly there or thereabouts in the averages in the Polish Ekstraliga. He can gate and his engines are being done by Jan Andersson.
He won't be world champion, obviously. He might be down at the bottom of the standings, but he could also be in there challenging for a place in the top eight. He will no doubt have poor GPs, but, semi-weird as he is, he'll have GPs where he looks the business. He might even win one, with a fair wind.
He's just impossible to predict.
Record: GPs = 11; Finals = 0; Wins = 0.
14..Sebastian Ulamek..(POL): In 2006 the most consistent performer in the GPs was Piotr Protasiewicz. To be sure, he was consistently bad, but no one was - statistically - as consistent. And that's what I expect from 33-year-old Ulamek in 2009.
Record: GPs = 19; Finals = 0; Wins = 0.
15..Emil Sajfutdinov..(RUS): The preternaturally-gifted 19-year-old Russian will make his GP debut amid much hullabaloo and high expectations. Could Sajfutdinov be Russia's best hope of being in world championship contention since the late Igor Plechanov back in the 1960s?
He certainly has the ability and a certain six-times world champion in his corner.
I've a feeling his introduction to the circus will be along similar lines to that of the erratic princeling Antonio Lindback back in 2005, although one suspects without the "Olympic set" at Bydgoszcz, since it's his home track in Poland. Lindback had his moments and generally did well enough. I expect the same from Sajfutdinov.
Record: GPs = 0; Finals = 0; Wins = 0.
The Subedei prediction:
1..N Pedersen..(DEN)
2..T Gollob..(POL)
3..J Crump..(AUS)
4..A Jonsson..(SWE)
5..H Andersen..(DEN)
6..G Hancock..(USA)
7..L Adams..(AUS)
8..G Walasek..(POL)
9..R Holta..(POL)
10..E Sajfutdinov..(RUS)
11..S Nicholls..(GBR)
12..K Bjerre..(DEN)
13..F Lindgren..(SWE)
14..C Harris..(GBR)
15..S Ulamek..(POL)
Anyone else have any thoughts?
Have I missed something 
, but needs to channel the aggression in a positive way, and not just to dispose of the riders in his way, anyway he can.